Success Rates Depend on the Appropriateness of the Outcome Measures

Abstract

This "Cheap Lessons" article emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate outcome. A brief example from the sports medicine literature relating to baseball pitching performance and the “Tommy John surgery” (TJS) is discussed. The example illustrates how an inappropriate outcome measure often utilized in studies involving the TJS has resulted in deceptive, overestimates of the surgery’s success rate. The unintended consequence of this methodological miscalculation is that numerous athletes have elected to pursue this unnecessary medical procedure and put both their health and sporting careers at risk.